Port Vale 1–2 Tranmere: Result & Stats | League Two

Port Vale

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tranmere

B. Whitfield 59'

J. Norwood 56', 10'

2/19/2019

League Two · Round 31Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Port Vale46%

×Draw27%

Tranmere27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.04

Port Vale

1.43

Tranmere

1.04

Port Vale creates 38% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 163 away

1.37

creates per match

1.03

1.05

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Port Vale

1.37

Tranmere

1.03

allows per match

Port Vale

1.05

Tranmere

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

73%

Port Vale or Tranmere

73%

Draw or Tranmere

54%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

22%

Tranmere wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

76%

Port Vale 2+ goals

42%

Port Vale 3+ goals

17%

Tranmere 1+ goals

65%

Tranmere 2+ goals

28%

Tranmere 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

63%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 115 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 163 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.37 + Tranmere defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tranmere attack 1.03 + Port Vale defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Port Vale scores more

46%

level

27%

Tranmere scores more

27%

Port Vale at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

J. Norwood↳ K. Morris

31'

44'

45'

53'

56'

J. Norwood↳ C. Jennings

58'

D. Worrall← L. Hannant

59'

B. Whitfield↳ T. Pope

61'

H. Gilmour← B. Pringle

67'

Jake Caprice

77'

J. Smith← K. Morris

83'

Emmanuel Monthe

84'

R. Miller← B. Whitfield

85'

89'

89'

90'

Port5-3-2

Tranmere4-4-2

10

⚽2

Norwood

11

A

Jennings

19

A

▼

Morris

27

▼

17

6

12

14

24

16

1

1

14

2

23

▼

Clark

15

Smith

13

Rawlinson

11

▼

Hannant

24

⚽

▼

Whitfield

6

Kay

22

Conlon

9

A

Pope

Manager: J. Askey

53'▲C. Montaño←▼M. Clark

58'▲D. Worrall←▼L. Hannant

84'▲R. Miller←▼B. Whitfield

Port Vale substitutes

3Montaño7Worrall10Miller5Legge12Hornby19Harris27Edser

Manager: M. Mellon

61'▲H. Gilmour←▼B. Pringle

77'▲J. Smith←▼K. Morris

Tranmere substitutes

22Gilmour18Smith2Buxton9Mullin25Pilling28Banks29Dagnall

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Tranmere

Tranmere beat Port Vale 2-1 in League Two on February 19, 2019.

Goals: J. Norwood (10', 56'), B. Whitfield (59').

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke.

Port Vale vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Tranmere