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Port Vale vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Salford City
Salford City
C. Montaño 86'
10/17/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 6Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Port Vale39%
×Draw27%
Salford City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.29
Salford City
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 158 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.37
Salford City
1.32

allows per match

Port Vale
1.05
Salford City
1.20

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
66%
Port Vale or Salford City
73%
Draw or Salford City
61%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
17%
Salford City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
72%
Port Vale 2+ goals
37%
Port Vale 3+ goals
14%
Salford City 1+ goals
70%
Salford City 2+ goals
33%
Salford City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
53%
Salford City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 115 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.37 + Salford City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Salford City attack 1.32 + Port Vale defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Port Vale scores more
39%
level
27%
Salford City scores more
34%

Port Vale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
S. BrownPort ValePort Vale · G
8.6

Match Events

16'
Devante Rodney
60'
B. Thomas-Asante← Bruno Andrade
68'
A. Denny← D. Gibson
79'
T. Robinson← D. Rodney
86'
C. Montaño↳ D. Worrall
89'
T. Elliott← I. Henderson
90+4'
S. Brisley← D. Whitehead

Possession

40%Port

Shots

14Port

Pass accuracy

46%Port

Statistics

PortSalford
Overview
40%Possession60%
14Total Shots15
6Corners7
16Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots15
5On Target7
6Off Target7
3Blocked1
8Inside Box6
6Outside Box9
Passing
40%Possession60%
311Total Passes481
200Accurate Passes366
64%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
7Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

League Two: Port Vale 1–0 Salford City

Port Vale beat Salford City 1-0 in League Two on October 17, 2020.

Goals: C. Montaño (86').

Salford City controlled possession (60%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.