Port Vale 1–0 Notts County: Result & Stats

Port Vale

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Notts County

R. Curtis 85'

2/13/2025

League Two · Round 32Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Port Vale44%

×Draw26%

Notts County31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchNotts County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.21

Port Vale

1.49

Notts County

1.21

Port Vale creates 23% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 94 away

1.37

creates per match

1.38

1.05

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Port Vale

1.37

Notts County

1.38

allows per match

Port Vale

1.05

Notts County

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Notts County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

69%

Port Vale or Notts County

74%

Draw or Notts County

56%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

21%

Notts County wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

77%

Port Vale 2+ goals

44%

Port Vale 3+ goals

19%

Notts County 1+ goals

70%

Notts County 2+ goals

34%

Notts County 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

59%

Notts County (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 115 matches

Notts County away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.60 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.37 + Notts County defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Notts County attack 1.38 + Port Vale defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Port Vale scores more

44%

level

26%

Notts County scores more

31%

Port Vale at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

N. Smith

Port Vale · D

8.2

Match Events

50'

R. Curtis← J. Stockley

66'

S. Hart← J. Shorrock

68'

N. Tsaroulla← K. Gordon

81'

J. Hinchy← C. Edwards

81'

85'

90+1'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortNotts

Overview

42%Possession58%

7Total Shots11

4Corners3

6Fouls7

Shots

7Total Shots11

1On Target4

4Off Target5

2Blocked2

5Inside Box7

2Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

356Total Passes513

285Accurate Passes424

80%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

6Fouls7

0Offsides1