Notts County 0–1 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Notts County

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Port Vale

10/5/2024

League Two · Round 10Meadow Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Notts County41%

×Draw26%

Port Vale33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notts CountyExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.22

Notts County

1.39

Port Vale

1.22

Notts County creates 14% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 118 away

1.60

creates per match

1.16

1.28

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Notts County

1.60

Port Vale

1.16

allows per match

Notts County

1.28

Port Vale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Notts County+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notts County ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Notts County or draw

67%

Notts County or Port Vale

74%

Draw or Port Vale

59%

Winning margin

Notts County wins by 2+

19%

Port Vale wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Notts County 1+ goals

75%

Notts County 2+ goals

40%

Notts County 3+ goals

16%

Port Vale 1+ goals

70%

Port Vale 2+ goals

34%

Port Vale 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Notts County (draw refunded)

55%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notts County at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.28 · 96 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notts County attack 1.60 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Notts County defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Notts County scores more

41%

level

26%

Port Vale scores more

33%

Notts County at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Notts County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff