Port Vale 3–1 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Port Vale

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Morecambe

10/5/2019

League Two · Round 12Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Port Vale48%

×Draw25%

Morecambe26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.08

Port Vale

1.56

Morecambe

1.08

Port Vale creates 44% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 112 away

1.37

creates per match

1.10

1.05

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Port Vale

1.37

Morecambe

1.10

allows per match

Port Vale

1.05

Morecambe

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

74%

Port Vale or Morecambe

75%

Draw or Morecambe

52%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

25%

Morecambe wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

79%

Port Vale 2+ goals

46%

Port Vale 3+ goals

21%

Morecambe 1+ goals

66%

Morecambe 2+ goals

29%

Morecambe 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

65%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 115 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.75 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.37 + Morecambe defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

Morecambe attack 1.10 + Port Vale defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Port Vale scores more

48%

level

25%

Morecambe scores more

26%

Port Vale at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff