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Morecambe vs Port Vale — League Two 2018

Morecambe
Morecambe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
E. Chislett 83'
11/16/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 16Mazuma Mobile Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Morecambe36%
×Draw27%
Port Vale37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morecambe
1.24
Port Vale
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 117 away

creates per match

Morecambe
1.31
Port Vale
1.17

allows per match

Morecambe
1.32
Port Vale
1.17

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw
63%
Morecambe or Port Vale
73%
Draw or Port Vale
64%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+
16%
Port Vale wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals
71%
Morecambe 2+ goals
35%
Morecambe 3+ goals
13%
Port Vale 1+ goals
71%
Port Vale 2+ goals
36%
Port Vale 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)
50%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.31 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.24

Port Vale attack 1.17 + Morecambe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Morecambe scores more
36%
level
27%
Port Vale scores more
37%

Port Vale at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
B. HeneghanPort ValePort Vale · D
8.2

Match Events

46'
H. Macadam← D. Tutonda
69'
P. Lewis← G. Edwards
71'
S. Hart← C. Grant
71'
B. Baker-Boaitey← R. Curtis
72'
R. Richards← R. Paton
74'
H. Hope← M. Dackers
83'
Ethan Chislett
83'
E. Chislett↳ J. Stockley
85'
Benicio Boaitey
87'
N. Smith← B. Cover
89'
J. Slew← C. Jones
90+2'
J. Lowe← E. Chislett

Possession

38%Morecambe

Shots

11Morecambe

Pass accuracy

45%Morecambe

Statistics

MorecambePort
Overview
38%Possession62%
11Total Shots13
4Corners5
8Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots13
0On Target2
7Off Target6
4Blocked5
5Inside Box11
6Outside Box2
Passing
38%Possession62%
279Total Passes476
174Accurate Passes368
62%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
8Fouls14
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

League Two: Morecambe 0–1 Port Vale

Port Vale beat Morecambe 1-0 in League Two on November 16, 2024.

Goals: E. Chislett (83').

Port Vale controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Mazuma Mobile Stadium in Morecambe, Lancashire.