Morecambe 1–0 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Morecambe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Port Vale

2/21/2023

League One · Round 28Mazuma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Morecambe47%

×Draw25%

Port Vale28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MorecambeExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.13

Morecambe

1.56

Port Vale

1.13

Morecambe creates 38% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 72 away

1.37

creates per match

0.82

1.43

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Morecambe

1.37

Port Vale

0.82

allows per match

Morecambe

1.43

Port Vale

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw

72%

Morecambe or Port Vale

75%

Draw or Port Vale

53%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+

24%

Port Vale wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals

79%

Morecambe 2+ goals

46%

Morecambe 3+ goals

21%

Port Vale 1+ goals

68%

Port Vale 2+ goals

31%

Port Vale 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)

63%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.43 · 46 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.75 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.37 + Port Vale defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

Port Vale attack 0.82 + Morecambe defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Morecambe scores more

47%

level

25%

Port Vale scores more

28%

Morecambe at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff