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Port Vale vs Milton Keynes Dons — League Two 2018

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
B. Garrity 90+8'
J. Stockley 52'
L. Tolaj 27'
3/15/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 37Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Port Vale41%
×Draw25%
Milton Keynes Dons33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.47
Milton Keynes Dons
1.29

Port Vale creates 14% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 93 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.37
Milton Keynes Dons
1.54

allows per match

Port Vale
1.05
Milton Keynes Dons
1.56

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
67%
Port Vale or Milton Keynes Dons
75%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons
59%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
20%
Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
77%
Port Vale 2+ goals
43%
Port Vale 3+ goals
18%
Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
72%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
37%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
55%
Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 115 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.56 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.37 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.54 + Port Vale defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Port Vale scores more
41%
level
25%
Milton Keynes Dons scores more
33%

Port Vale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
R. CurtisPort ValePort Vale · F
9.0

Match Events

27'
L. Tolaj↳ J. Stockley
52'
J. Stockley↳ R. Curtis
53'
T. O'Reilly← C. Tripp
55'
Tommi O'Reilly
65'
K. Thompson-Sommers← D. Orsi
66'
S. Hogan← N. Lawrence
70'
R. Croasdale← R. Walters
71'
J. Umolu← J. Stockley
83'
B. Garrity← L. Tolaj
90'
Daniel Crowley
90+8'
B. Garrity↳ R. Curtis

Possession

31%Port

Shots

20Port

Pass accuracy

44%Port

Statistics

PortMilton
Overview
31%Possession69%
20Total Shots5
4Corners6
9Fouls10
Shots
20Total Shots5
8On Target1
7Off Target4
5Blocked0
17Inside Box2
3Outside Box3
Passing
31%Possession69%
259Total Passes592
175Accurate Passes504
68%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls10
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Milton Keynes Dons

Port Vale beat Milton Keynes Dons 3-0 in League Two on March 15, 2025.

Goals: L. Tolaj (27'), J. Stockley (52'), B. Garrity (90+8').

Milton Keynes Dons controlled possession (69%) and registered 5 shots to 20.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.