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Milton Keynes Dons vs Port Vale — League Two 2018

Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
10/12/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 11Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons44%
×Draw27%
Port Vale29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons
1.39
Port Vale
1.07

Milton Keynes Dons creates 30% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 118 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.61
Port Vale
1.16

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons
0.98
Port Vale
1.17

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw
71%
Milton Keynes Dons or Port Vale
73%
Draw or Port Vale
56%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
21%
Port Vale wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
75%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
40%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
16%
Port Vale 1+ goals
66%
Port Vale 2+ goals
29%
Port Vale 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
60%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.98 · 93 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.61 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more
44%
level
27%
Port Vale scores more
29%

Milton Keynes Dons at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Milton Keynes Dons 0–1 Port Vale

Port Vale beat Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 in League Two on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadium MK in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.