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Port Vale vs Leyton Orient — League One 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
I. El Mizouni 60'
2/6/2024League OneLeague One · Round 18Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Port Vale39%
×Draw27%
Leyton Orient34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.30
Leyton Orient
1.18

Port Vale creates 10% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 25 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.96
Leyton Orient
1.12

allows per match

Port Vale
1.24
Leyton Orient
1.64

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
66%
Port Vale or Leyton Orient
73%
Draw or Leyton Orient
61%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
18%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
73%
Port Vale 2+ goals
37%
Port Vale 3+ goals
14%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
69%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
33%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
54%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.96 + Leyton Orient defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.30

Leyton Orient attack 1.12 + Port Vale defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Port Vale scores more
39%
level
27%
Leyton Orient scores more
34%

Port Vale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
T. JamesLeyton OrientLeyton Orient · D
8.7

Match Events

16'
Jordan Brown
60'
I. El Mizouni↳ T. James
66'
D. Jones← K. Łopata
66'
C. Grant← J. Shorrock
68'
B. Dipepa← R. Loft
71'
R. Hunt← G. Moncur
72'
O. O'Neill← S. Forde
74'
Theodore Archibald
75'
N. Smith← F. Ojo
79'
D. Pratley← T. Archibald
81'
A. Mighten← T. Sang
88'
J. Pigott← R. Sotiriou

Possession

45%Port

Shots

7Port

Pass accuracy

46%Port

Statistics

PortLeyton
Overview
45%Possession55%
7Total Shots17
4Corners2
3Fouls6
Shots
7Total Shots17
3On Target8
4Off Target4
0Blocked5
5Inside Box10
2Outside Box7
Passing
45%Possession55%
398Total Passes493
264Accurate Passes375
66%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
7Saves3
Discipline
3Fouls6
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides7

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Leyton Orient

Leyton Orient beat Port Vale 1-0 in League One on February 6, 2024.

Goals: I. El Mizouni (60').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.