Leyton Orient 0–1 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Port Vale

Kyle John 2'

1/31/2026

League One · Round 30Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Leyton Orient49%

×Draw26%

Port Vale26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.04

Leyton Orient

1.53

Port Vale

1.04

Leyton Orient creates 47% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 44 away

1.42

creates per match

0.75

1.33

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.42

Port Vale

0.75

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.33

Port Vale

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

74%

Leyton Orient or Port Vale

74%

Draw or Port Vale

51%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

25%

Port Vale wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

78%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

45%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

20%

Port Vale 1+ goals

65%

Port Vale 2+ goals

28%

Port Vale 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

65%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.64 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.42 + Port Vale defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.53

Port Vale attack 0.75 + Leyton Orient defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

49%

level

26%

Port Vale scores more

26%

Leyton Orient at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

Kyle John

Port Vale · D

8.3

Match Events

2'

Kyle John↳ B. Garrity

22'

Funso Ojo

34'

Dominic Ballard

57'

J. Stockley← D. Brown

58'

J. Lawrence-Gabriel← F. Ojo

58'

G. Hall← B. Waine

63'

J. Headley← E. Archer

67'

C. Wellens← O. O'Neill

68'

J. Moorhouse← M. Craig

72'

Liam Gordon

78'

D. Mitchell← J. Koroma

80'

Kaelan Casey

86'

A. Matthews← T. Archibald

90+1'

B. Heneghan← L. Gordon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonPort

Overview

70%Possession30%

11Total Shots7

0.91Expected Goals (xG)0.63

5Corners6

8Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots7

2On Target3

4Off Target1

5Blocked3

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box1

Passing

70%Possession30%

557Total Passes240

459Accurate Passes131

82%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2