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Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town — League Two 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
R. Curtis 73'
R. Croasdale 67'
R. Richards 33'
C. Johnston 36'
10/19/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 12Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Port Vale46%
×Draw27%
Fleetwood Town28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.42
Fleetwood Town
1.04

Port Vale creates 37% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 26 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.66
Fleetwood Town
1.00

allows per match

Port Vale
1.09
Fleetwood Town
1.19

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
72%
Port Vale or Fleetwood Town
73%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
54%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
22%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
76%
Port Vale 2+ goals
41%
Port Vale 3+ goals
17%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
65%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
28%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
62%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.66 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.42

Fleetwood Town attack 1.00 + Port Vale defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Port Vale scores more
46%
level
27%
Fleetwood Town scores more
28%

Port Vale at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
T. SangPort ValePort Vale · D
7.6

Match Events

8'
Elliot Bonds
33'
R. Richards↳ J. Stockley
36'
C. Johnston↳ P. Patterson
45'
Kayden Hughes
48'
Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu
62'
Ryan Graydon
65'
B. Baker-Boaitey← E. Chislett
65'
R. Curtis← R. Richards
66'
M. Helm← R. Coughlan
66'
M. Odubeko← M. Virtue-Thick
67'
R. Croasdale↳ B. Baker-Boaitey
73'
R. Curtis↳ B. Garrity
75'
A. Hackford← J. Stockley
82'
Mackenzie Hunt← K. Hughes
82'
K. Harratt← R. Graydon
83'
R. Broom← C. Johnston
86'
J. Lowe← R. Croasdale

Possession

56%Port

Shots

8Port

Pass accuracy

54%Port

Statistics

PortFleetwood
Overview
56%Possession44%
8Total Shots6
8Corners4
10Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots6
3On Target3
3Off Target1
2Blocked2
7Inside Box5
1Outside Box1
Passing
56%Possession44%
494Total Passes386
407Accurate Passes275
82%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls13
0Yellow Cards4
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town

Port Vale beat Fleetwood Town 3-1 in League Two on October 19, 2024.

Goals: R. Richards (33'), C. Johnston (36'), R. Croasdale (67'), R. Curtis (73').

Port Vale controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 6.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.