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Fleetwood Town vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
R. Graydon 81'
L. Tolaj 90+6' (pen)
3/8/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 36Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Fleetwood Town35%
×Draw26%
Port Vale39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.30
Port Vale
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 36 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.42
Port Vale
1.42

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
1.35
Port Vale
1.19

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
61%
Fleetwood Town or Port Vale
74%
Draw or Port Vale
65%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
15%
Port Vale wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
73%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
37%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
14%
Port Vale 1+ goals
75%
Port Vale 2+ goals
40%
Port Vale 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
47%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.42 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
35%
level
26%
Port Vale scores more
39%

Port Vale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
R. GraydonFleetwood TownFleetwood Town · F
7.9

Match Events

46'
M. Clark← S. Hart
46'
R. Curtis← A. Hackford
65'
R. Harper← R. Walters
65'
E. Chislett← R. Croasdale
67'
M. Virtue-Thick← D. Mayor
67'
O. Devonport← L. Marsh
67'
P. Patterson← Mackenzie Hunt
81'
R. Graydon↳ O. Devonport
83'
H. Neal← M. Helm
86'
J. Umolu← T. Sang
90+6'
L. TolajPenalty

Possession

44%Fleetwood

Shots

12Fleetwood

Pass accuracy

48%Fleetwood

Statistics

FleetwoodPort
Overview
44%Possession56%
12Total Shots11
2Corners3
9Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots11
2On Target4
8Off Target5
2Blocked2
8Inside Box7
4Outside Box4
Passing
44%Possession56%
306Total Passes389
200Accurate Passes275
65%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls9
1Offsides3

League Two: Fleetwood Town 1–1 Port Vale

Fleetwood Town and Port Vale drew 1-1 in League Two on March 8, 2025.

Goals: R. Graydon (81'), L. Tolaj (90+6' pen).

Port Vale controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Highbury Stadium in Fleetwood, Lancashire.