Port Vale 0–1 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Port Vale

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Doncaster

O. Bailey 54'

8/23/2025

League One · Round 5Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Port Vale40%

×Draw28%

Doncaster32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.06

Port Vale

1.23

Doncaster

1.06

Port Vale creates 16% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 24 away

0.84

creates per match

0.96

1.16

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Port Vale

0.84

Doncaster

0.96

allows per match

Port Vale

1.16

Doncaster

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

68%

Port Vale or Doncaster

72%

Draw or Doncaster

60%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

17%

Doncaster wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

71%

Port Vale 2+ goals

35%

Port Vale 3+ goals

13%

Doncaster 1+ goals

65%

Doncaster 2+ goals

29%

Doncaster 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

56%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

Doncaster away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.84 + Doncaster defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.23

Doncaster attack 0.96 + Port Vale defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Port Vale scores more

40%

level

28%

Doncaster scores more

32%

Port Vale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

O. Bailey

Doncaster · M

7.9

Match Events

37'

Cameron Humphreys

40'

Jay McGrath

46'

J. Maxwell← J. Senior

46'

M. Pearson← J. McGrath

54'

O. Bailey↳ G. Middleton

62'

L. Gordon← J. Headley

62'

R. Croasdale← B. Garrity

62'

R. Curtis← M. Faal

70'

R. Walters← F. Ojo

78'

J. Gibson← G. Middleton

79'

R. Richards← Kyle John

90+2'

Luke Molyneux

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortDoncaster

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots6

7Corners6

10Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots6

3On Target1

9Off Target4

1Blocked1

9Inside Box4

4Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

329Total Passes419

226Accurate Passes314

69%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3