Doncaster 1–0 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Doncaster

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Port Vale

E. Campbell 22' (OG)

3/24/2026

League One · Round 32Eco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Doncaster46%

×Draw27%

Port Vale27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.02

Doncaster

1.40

Port Vale

1.02

Doncaster creates 37% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 33 away

1.21

creates per match

0.70

1.33

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Doncaster

1.21

Port Vale

0.70

allows per match

Doncaster

1.33

Port Vale

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

73%

Doncaster or Port Vale

73%

Draw or Port Vale

54%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

22%

Port Vale wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

75%

Doncaster 2+ goals

41%

Doncaster 3+ goals

17%

Port Vale 1+ goals

64%

Port Vale 2+ goals

27%

Port Vale 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

62%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.21 + Port Vale defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.40

Port Vale attack 0.70 + Doncaster defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Doncaster scores more

46%

level

27%

Port Vale scores more

27%

Doncaster at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Pearson

Doncaster · D

7.7

Match Events

22'

E. CampbellOwn goal

54'

O. Hernandez← J. Lawrence-Gabriel

54'

D. Brown← M. Sherif

54'

E. Archer← R. Walters

54'

B. Garrity← F. Ojo

68'

G. Middleton← J. Gibson

73'

Jamie Sterry

79'

A. Gray← E. Campbell

80'

H. Clifton← E. Lee

80'

G. Broadbent← N. Byrne

89'

Robbie Gotts

90+4'

Glenn Middleton

90+3'

B. Close← H. Adelakun

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DoncasterPort

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots5

4Corners1

16Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots5

2On Target3

7Off Target0

3Blocked2

6Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

340Total Passes344

239Accurate Passes235

70%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls10

3Yellow Cards0

3Offsides5