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Port Vale vs Carlisle — League Two 2018

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Carlisle
Carlisle
8/17/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 3Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Port Vale45%
×Draw27%
Carlisle28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.38
Carlisle
1.04

Port Vale creates 33% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 134 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.37
Carlisle
1.04

allows per match

Port Vale
1.05
Carlisle
1.38

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Carlisle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
72%
Port Vale or Carlisle
73%
Draw or Carlisle
55%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
21%
Carlisle wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
75%
Port Vale 2+ goals
40%
Port Vale 3+ goals
16%
Carlisle 1+ goals
65%
Carlisle 2+ goals
28%
Carlisle 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
61%
Carlisle (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 115 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.37 + Carlisle defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Carlisle attack 1.04 + Port Vale defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Port Vale scores more
45%
level
27%
Carlisle scores more
28%

Port Vale at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Carlisle

Port Vale and Carlisle drew 0-0 in League Two on August 17, 2021.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.