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Carlisle vs Port Vale — League One 2018

Carlisle
Carlisle
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
1/1/2024League OneLeague One · Round 26Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Carlisle39%
×Draw26%
Port Vale35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlisle
1.38
Port Vale
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 72 away

creates per match

Carlisle
1.00
Port Vale
0.82

allows per match

Carlisle
1.75
Port Vale
1.75

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw
65%
Carlisle or Port Vale
74%
Draw or Port Vale
61%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+
18%
Port Vale wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals
75%
Carlisle 2+ goals
40%
Carlisle 3+ goals
16%
Port Vale 1+ goals
72%
Port Vale 2+ goals
37%
Port Vale 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)
53%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.75 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.00 + Port Vale defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Port Vale attack 0.82 + Carlisle defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Carlisle scores more
39%
level
26%
Port Vale scores more
35%

Carlisle at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carlisle vs Port Vale

Carlisle beat Port Vale 2-1 in League One on January 1, 2024.

The match was played at Brunton Park in Carlisle, Cumbria.