Carlisle 1–3 Port Vale: Result & Stats | League Two

Carlisle

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Port Vale

2/8/2022

League Two · Round 31Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Carlisle38%

×Draw28%

Port Vale35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.18

Carlisle

1.24

Port Vale

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 118 away

1.31

creates per match

1.16

1.20

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Carlisle

1.31

Port Vale

1.16

allows per match

Carlisle

1.20

Port Vale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

65%

Carlisle or Port Vale

72%

Draw or Port Vale

62%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

16%

Port Vale wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

71%

Carlisle 2+ goals

35%

Carlisle 3+ goals

13%

Port Vale 1+ goals

69%

Port Vale 2+ goals

33%

Port Vale 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

52%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 134 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.31 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.24

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Carlisle defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Carlisle scores more

38%

level

28%

Port Vale scores more

35%

Carlisle at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff