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Port Vale vs Cardiff — League One 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
8/7/2025League OneLeague One · Round 2Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Port Vale25%
×Draw26%
Cardiff49%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
0.99
Cardiff
1.50

Cardiff creates 52% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 23 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.81
Cardiff
1.74

allows per match

Port Vale
1.26
Cardiff
1.17

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
51%
Port Vale or Cardiff
74%
Draw or Cardiff
75%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
9%
Cardiff wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
63%
Port Vale 2+ goals
26%
Port Vale 3+ goals
8%
Cardiff 1+ goals
78%
Cardiff 2+ goals
44%
Cardiff 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
34%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.81 + Cardiff defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.99

Cardiff attack 1.74 + Port Vale defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Port Vale scores more
25%
level
26%
Cardiff scores more
49%

Cardiff at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. TolajPort ValePort Vale · F
7.6

Match Events

54'
Mitchell Clark
54'
Joel Bagan
61'
W. Fish← D. Lawlor
61'
D. Turnbull← J. Colwill
61'
C. Ashford← O. Tanner
77'
B. Waine← R. Curtis
77'
C. Robinson← Y. Salech
83'
B. Heneghan← L. Gordon
90+4'
Funso Ojo
90+1'
Ben Waine
90+1'
I. Davies← C. Willock

Possession

40%Port

Shots

16Port

Pass accuracy

44%Port

Statistics

PortCardiff
Overview
40%Possession60%
16Total Shots9
0.79Expected Goals (xG)0.16
5Corners4
13Fouls6
Shots
16Total Shots9
1On Target1
9Off Target6
6Blocked2
10Inside Box5
6Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
247Total Passes388
159Accurate Passes311
64%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls6
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Cardiff

Port Vale and Cardiff drew 0-0 in League One on August 7, 2025.

Cardiff controlled possession (60%) and registered 9 shots to 16.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke on Trent.