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Cardiff vs Port Vale — League One 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
R. Colwill 79'
4/22/2026League OneLeague One · Round 41Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Cardiff60%
×Draw22%
Port Vale18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.87
Port Vale
0.91

Cardiff creates 105% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 28 away

creates per match

Cardiff
2.17
Port Vale
0.82

allows per match

Cardiff
1.00
Port Vale
1.57

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
82%
Cardiff or Port Vale
78%
Draw or Port Vale
40%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
35%
Port Vale wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
85%
Cardiff 2+ goals
56%
Cardiff 3+ goals
29%
Port Vale 1+ goals
60%
Port Vale 2+ goals
23%
Port Vale 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
77%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 2.17 + Port Vale defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.87

Port Vale attack 0.82 + Cardiff defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Cardiff scores more
60%
level
22%
Port Vale scores more
18%

Cardiff at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44
R. KpakioCardiffCardiff · D
7.9

Match Events

62'
W. Fish← G. Osho
62'
C. Willock← C. Robinson
62'
O. Kellyman← A. Robertson
72'
O. Hernandez← J. Lawrence-Gabriel
72'
B. Waine← M. Sherif
72'
E. Archer← G. Hall
72'
J. Headley← L. Gordon
79'
R. Colwill↳ C. Willock
81'
David Turnbull
83'
J. Bagan← C. Scanlon
85'
J. Shipley← R. Croasdale
90+2'
R. Wintle← J. Colwill

Possession

66%Cardiff

Shots

14Cardiff

Pass accuracy

55%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffPort
Overview
66%Possession34%
14Total Shots6
6Corners6
3Fouls6
Shots
14Total Shots6
4On Target2
7Off Target2
3Blocked2
8Inside Box6
6Outside Box0
Passing
66%Possession34%
576Total Passes291
495Accurate Passes204
86%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
3Fouls6
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Port Vale

Cardiff beat Port Vale 1-0 in League One on April 22, 2026.

Goals: R. Colwill (79').

Cardiff controlled possession (66%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Cardiff.