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Port Vale vs Cambridge United — League One 2018

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
4/27/2024League OneLeague One · Round 46Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Port Vale43%
×Draw27%
Cambridge United30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.38
Cambridge United
1.09

Port Vale creates 27% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 92 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.97
Cambridge United
0.89

allows per match

Port Vale
1.29
Cambridge United
1.78

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Cambridge United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
70%
Port Vale or Cambridge United
73%
Draw or Cambridge United
57%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
21%
Cambridge United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
75%
Port Vale 2+ goals
40%
Port Vale 3+ goals
16%
Cambridge United 1+ goals
66%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
30%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
59%
Cambridge United (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.29 · 72 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.97 + Cambridge United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cambridge United attack 0.89 + Port Vale defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Port Vale scores more
43%
level
27%
Cambridge United scores more
30%

Port Vale at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Port Vale 0–0 Cambridge United

Port Vale and Cambridge United drew 0-0 in League One on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.