Cambridge United 1–1 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Port Vale

9/23/2023

League One · Round 9Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Cambridge United46%

×Draw27%

Port Vale27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.02

Cambridge United

1.42

Port Vale

1.02

Cambridge United creates 39% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 72 away

1.08

creates per match

0.82

1.22

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.08

Port Vale

0.82

allows per match

Cambridge United

1.22

Port Vale

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

73%

Cambridge United or Port Vale

73%

Draw or Port Vale

54%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

22%

Port Vale wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

76%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

41%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

17%

Port Vale 1+ goals

64%

Port Vale 2+ goals

27%

Port Vale 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

63%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.75 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Port Vale defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.42

Port Vale attack 0.82 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cambridge United scores more

46%

level

27%

Port Vale scores more

27%

Cambridge United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Cambridge United 1–1 Port Vale

Cambridge United and Port Vale drew 1-1 in League One on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Abbey Stadium in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire.

Cambridge United vs Port Vale — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

League One: Cambridge United 1–1 Port Vale