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Port Vale vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
B. Waine 29'
E. Archer 6'
J. Beesley 52', 26'
2/7/2026League OneLeague One · Round 31Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Port Vale39%
×Draw25%
Burton Albion36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.50
Burton Albion
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.37
Burton Albion
1.30

allows per match

Port Vale
1.57
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

Port Vale-0.54scores less
Burton Albion-0.30scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
64%
Port Vale or Burton Albion
75%
Draw or Burton Albion
61%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
19%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
78%
Port Vale 2+ goals
44%
Port Vale 3+ goals
19%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
76%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
42%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
52%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.57 · 12 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.37 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Burton Albion attack 1.30 + Port Vale defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Port Vale scores more
39%
level
25%
Burton Albion scores more
36%

Port Vale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
E. ArcherPort ValePort Vale · M
7.9

Match Events

5'
Udoka Godwin-Malife
6'
E. Archer
26'
J. Beesley↳ S. Revan
29'
B. Waine
36'
Terence Vancooten
40'
George Hall
52'
J. Beesley↳ K. Lofthouse
55'
Sulyman Krubally
61'
Connor Hall
70'
T. Sibbick← T. Vancooten
76'
D. Brown← B. Waine
76'
A. Gray← J. Stockley
78'
A. Cannon← S. Krubally
83'
R. Walters← E. Archer
88'
K. Adom← T. Shade
90+3'
T. Magloire← R. Croasdale

Possession

43%Port

Shots

14Port

Pass accuracy

47%Port

Statistics

PortBurton
Overview
43%Possession57%
14Total Shots13
2.14Expected Goals (xG)1.62
5Corners6
9Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots13
5On Target6
4Off Target2
5Blocked5
10Inside Box10
4Outside Box3
Passing
43%Possession57%
252Total Passes327
156Accurate Passes228
62%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Burton Albion

Port Vale and Burton Albion drew 2-2 in League One on February 7, 2026.

Goals: E. Archer (6'), J. Beesley (26', 52'), B. Waine (29').

Burton Albion controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke on Trent.