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Burton Albion vs Port Vale — League One 2025

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
R. Loft 83'
3/23/2024League OneLeague One · Round 40Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Burton Albion44%
×Draw27%
Port Vale29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.37
Port Vale
1.05

Burton Albion creates 30% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 46 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.12
Port Vale
0.72

allows per match

Burton Albion
1.39
Port Vale
1.61

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
71%
Burton Albion or Port Vale
73%
Draw or Port Vale
56%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
21%
Port Vale wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
75%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
40%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
16%
Port Vale 1+ goals
65%
Port Vale 2+ goals
28%
Port Vale 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
61%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.12 + Port Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

Port Vale attack 0.72 + Burton Albion defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Burton Albion scores more
44%
level
27%
Port Vale scores more
29%

Burton Albion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
N. SmithPort ValePort Vale · D
7.6

Match Events

28'
Aristote Nsiala
53'
T. Sang← C. Grant
65'
K. Hudlin← J. Hugill
65'
B. Kamwa← M. Bennett
74'
Thomas Hamer
75'
G. Massey← J. Wilson
83'
R. Loft
84'
D. Scott← J. Brayford
85'
S. Hughes← A. Nsiala

Possession

46%Burton

Shots

12Burton

Pass accuracy

44%Burton

Statistics

BurtonPort
Overview
46%Possession54%
12Total Shots16
6Corners6
12Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots16
2On Target5
7Off Target9
3Blocked2
11Inside Box11
1Outside Box5
Passing
46%Possession54%
258Total Passes289
122Accurate Passes175
47%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls11
2Yellow Cards0

Match Recap: Burton Albion vs Port Vale

Port Vale beat Burton Albion 1-0 in League One on March 23, 2024.

Goals: R. Loft (83').

Port Vale controlled possession (54%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Pirelli Stadium in Burton-upon-Trent, Staffordshire.