Port Melbourne 4–0 Pascoe Vale: Result & Stats

Port Melbourne

FT

4 – 0

Pascoe Vale

6/15/2019

Victoria NPL · Round 17SS Anderson Reserve (Melbourne)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Port Melbourne53%

×Draw24%

Pascoe Vale23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port MelbourneExpected goals in this matchPascoe Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.06

Port Melbourne

1.74

Pascoe Vale

1.06

Port Melbourne creates 64% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 13 away

1.62

creates per match

0.85

1.27

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Port Melbourne

1.62

Pascoe Vale

0.85

allows per match

Port Melbourne

1.27

Pascoe Vale

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Melbourne+0.00on par

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Melbourne ↓

Pascoe Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Port Melbourne or draw

77%

Port Melbourne or Pascoe Vale

76%

Draw or Pascoe Vale

47%

Winning margin

Port Melbourne wins by 2+

29%

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Port Melbourne 1+ goals

82%

Port Melbourne 2+ goals

52%

Port Melbourne 3+ goals

25%

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals

65%

Pascoe Vale 2+ goals

29%

Pascoe Vale 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Port Melbourne (draw refunded)

70%

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Melbourne at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 78 matches

Pascoe Vale away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Melbourne attack 1.62 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.74

Pascoe Vale attack 0.85 + Port Melbourne defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Port Melbourne scores more

53%

level

24%

Pascoe Vale scores more

23%

Port Melbourne at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Port Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff