Pascoe Vale 0–1 Port Melbourne: Result & Stats

Pascoe Vale

FT

0 – 1

Port Melbourne

3/8/2019

Victoria NPL · Round 4CB Smith Reserve (Fawkner)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pascoe Vale37%

×Draw22%

Port Melbourne41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pascoe ValeExpected goals in this matchPort Melbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.86

Pascoe Vale

1.74

Port Melbourne

1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 76 away

1.69

creates per match

1.50

2.23

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Pascoe Vale

1.69

Port Melbourne

1.50

allows per match

Pascoe Vale

2.23

Port Melbourne

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Port Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pascoe Vale ↓

Port Melbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Pascoe Vale or draw

59%

Pascoe Vale or Port Melbourne

78%

Draw or Port Melbourne

63%

Winning margin

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+

19%

Port Melbourne wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals

82%

Pascoe Vale 2+ goals

52%

Pascoe Vale 3+ goals

25%

Port Melbourne 1+ goals

84%

Port Melbourne 2+ goals

55%

Port Melbourne 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)

47%

Port Melbourne (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pascoe Vale at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Port Melbourne away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.79 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pascoe Vale attack 1.69 + Port Melbourne defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.74

Port Melbourne attack 1.50 + Pascoe Vale defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pascoe Vale scores more

37%

level

22%

Port Melbourne scores more

41%

Port Melbourne at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Port Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff