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Port Melbourne vs North Geelong Warriors — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Port Melbourne
Port Melbourne
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
North Geelong Warriors
North Geelong Warriors
A. Chapman 90'
K. Eshun 16'
3/21/2026Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Port Melbourne28%
×Draw22%
North Geelong Warriors49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Melbourne
1.40
North Geelong Warriors
1.90

North Geelong Warriors creates 36% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 40 away

creates per match

Port Melbourne
0.90
North Geelong Warriors
1.60

allows per match

Port Melbourne
2.20
North Geelong Warriors
1.90

finishing

Port Melbourne+0.00on par
North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Melbourne ↓

North Geelong Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Port Melbourne or draw
51%
Port Melbourne or North Geelong Warriors
78%
Draw or North Geelong Warriors
72%

Winning margin

Port Melbourne wins by 2+
13%
North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Port Melbourne 1+ goals
75%
Port Melbourne 2+ goals
41%
Port Melbourne 3+ goals
17%
North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals
85%
North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals
56%
North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Port Melbourne (draw refunded)
37%
North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Melbourne at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

North Geelong Warriors away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Melbourne attack 0.90 + North Geelong Warriors defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.40

North Geelong Warriors attack 1.60 + Port Melbourne defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Port Melbourne scores more
28%
level
22%
North Geelong Warriors scores more
49%

North Geelong Warriors at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "North Geelong Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
K. Eshun
90'
A. Chapman
Port
North
A. Piddick
Manager: A. Piddick
S. Begg
Manager: S. Begg

Port Melbourne 0 – 2 North Geelong Warriors

North Geelong Warriors beat Port Melbourne 2-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 21, 2026.

Goals: K. Eshun (16'), A. Chapman (90').