North Geelong Warriors vs Port Melbourne — Victoria NPL 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 13+ matches
North Geelong Warriors21%
Port Melbourne58%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Port Melbourne creates 79% more chances
Season form · 13 home / 76 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over63
- Under37
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
North Geelong Warriors ↓
Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
North Geelong Warriors at home — creates 0.54, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches
Port Melbourne away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.79 · 76 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
North Geelong Warriors attack 0.54 + Port Melbourne defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.17
Port Melbourne attack 1.50 + North Geelong Warriors defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
Port Melbourne at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "Port Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
North Geelong Warriors host Port Melbourne on Saturday, 25 February 2023 at 06:00. The match is part of the Victoria NPL 2026/2027 season.
North Geelong Warriors 0 – 2 Port Melbourne
Port Melbourne beat North Geelong Warriors 2-0 in Victoria NPL on February 25, 2023.
Goals: C. Duggan (9' pen), L. Tevere (57').
The match was played at Elcho Park in Lara.