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Port FC vs Kitchee — AFC Champions League 2018

Port FC
Port FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kitchee
Kitchee
7/6/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group J - 5Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Port FC44%
×Draw27%
Kitchee29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port FC
1.38
Kitchee
1.08

Port FC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

Port FC
1.00
Kitchee
0.92

allows per match

Port FC
1.25
Kitchee
1.75

finishing

Port FC+0.00on par
Kitchee+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port FC ↓

Kitchee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Port FC or draw
71%
Port FC or Kitchee
73%
Draw or Kitchee
56%

Winning margin

Port FC wins by 2+
21%
Kitchee wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Port FC 1+ goals
75%
Port FC 2+ goals
40%
Port FC 3+ goals
16%
Kitchee 1+ goals
66%
Kitchee 2+ goals
29%
Kitchee 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Port FC (draw refunded)
60%
Kitchee (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Kitchee away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port FC attack 1.00 + Kitchee defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kitchee attack 0.92 + Port FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Port FC scores more
44%
level
27%
Kitchee scores more
29%

Port FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Port FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Port FC 1–1 Kitchee

Port FC and Kitchee drew 1-1 in AFC Champions League on July 6, 2021.

The match was played at Chang Arena in Buriram.