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Kitchee vs Port FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Kitchee
Kitchee
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Port FC
Port FC
6/24/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Ranking of second-placed teams - 1Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kitchee36%
×Draw27%
Port FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kitchee
1.26
Port FC
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kitchee
0.91
Port FC
1.20

allows per match

Kitchee
1.36
Port FC
1.60

finishing

Kitchee+0.00on par
Port FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitchee ↓

Port FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kitchee or draw
63%
Kitchee or Port FC
73%
Draw or Port FC
64%

Winning margin

Kitchee wins by 2+
16%
Port FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kitchee 1+ goals
72%
Kitchee 2+ goals
36%
Kitchee 3+ goals
13%
Port FC 1+ goals
72%
Port FC 2+ goals
37%
Port FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kitchee (draw refunded)
49%
Port FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitchee at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Port FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitchee attack 0.91 + Port FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.26

Port FC attack 1.20 + Kitchee defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kitchee scores more
36%
level
27%
Port FC scores more
37%

Port FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Port FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kitchee vs Port FC

Kitchee beat Port FC 2-0 in AFC Champions League on June 24, 2021.

The match was played at Chang Arena in Buriram.