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Port FC vs Hangzhou Greentown — AFC Cup 2018

Port FC
Port FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
10/24/2024AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3BG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Port FC33%
×Draw23%
Hangzhou Greentown45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port FC
1.50
Hangzhou Greentown
1.79

Hangzhou Greentown creates 19% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Port FC
1.00
Hangzhou Greentown
1.33

allows per match

Port FC
2.25
Hangzhou Greentown
2.00

finishing

Port FC+0.00on par
Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port FC ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Port FC or draw
55%
Port FC or Hangzhou Greentown
77%
Draw or Hangzhou Greentown
67%

Winning margin

Port FC wins by 2+
15%
Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Port FC 1+ goals
78%
Port FC 2+ goals
44%
Port FC 3+ goals
19%
Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
83%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
53%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Port FC (draw refunded)
42%
Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port FC attack 1.00 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.33 + Port FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Port FC scores more
33%
level
23%
Hangzhou Greentown scores more
45%

Hangzhou Greentown at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Port FC 1–0 Hangzhou Greentown

Port FC beat Hangzhou Greentown 1-0 in AFC Cup on October 24, 2024.

The match was played at BG Stadium in Pathum Thani.