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Hangzhou Greentown vs Port FC — AFC Cup 2018

Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Port FC
Port FC
11/7/2024AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Huanglong Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown51%
×Draw23%
Port FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hangzhou Greentown
1.88
Port FC
1.29

Hangzhou Greentown creates 46% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown
2.00
Port FC
1.25

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown
1.33
Port FC
1.75

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par
Port FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

Port FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw
74%
Hangzhou Greentown or Port FC
77%
Draw or Port FC
49%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
29%
Port FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
85%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
56%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
29%
Port FC 1+ goals
72%
Port FC 2+ goals
37%
Port FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
66%
Port FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Port FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 2.00 + Port FC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Port FC attack 1.25 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more
51%
level
23%
Port FC scores more
26%

Hangzhou Greentown at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hangzhou Greentown vs Port FC

Port FC beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 in AFC Cup on November 7, 2024.

The match was played at Huanglong Sports Centre in Hangzhou.