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Port FC vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Port FC
Port FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
6/27/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group J - 2Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Port FC46%
×Draw29%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port FC
1.29
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0.86

Port FC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

creates per match

Port FC
1.00
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0.47

allows per match

Port FC
1.25
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.59

finishing

Port FC+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port FC ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Port FC or draw
75%
Port FC or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
71%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
54%

Winning margin

Port FC wins by 2+
21%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Port FC 1+ goals
72%
Port FC 2+ goals
37%
Port FC 3+ goals
14%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
58%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
21%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Port FC (draw refunded)
65%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port FC attack 1.00 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.47 + Port FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Port FC scores more
46%
level
29%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
25%

Port FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Port FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Port FC 3–0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Port FC beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3-0 in AFC Champions League on June 27, 2021.

The match was played at Chang Arena in Buriram.