Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1–5 Port FC: Result & Stats

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Port FC

7/9/2021

AFC Champions League · Group J - 6Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC34%

×Draw24%

Port FC41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou Evergrande FCExpected goals in this matchPort FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.60

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.44

Port FC

1.60

Port FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

1.28

creates per match

1.20

2.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.28

Port FC

1.20

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

2.00

Port FC

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Port FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Port FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw

59%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Port FC

76%

Draw or Port FC

66%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+

16%

Port FC wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals

76%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals

42%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals

18%

Port FC 1+ goals

80%

Port FC 2+ goals

47%

Port FC 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)

45%

Port FC (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Port FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.28 + Port FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Port FC attack 1.20 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more

34%

level

24%

Port FC scores more

41%

Port FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Port FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff