Port FC 0–3 Cerezo Osaka: Result & Stats

Port FC

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Cerezo Osaka

7/3/2021

AFC Champions League · Group J - 4Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Port FC28%

×Draw29%

Cerezo Osaka43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port FCExpected goals in this matchCerezo Osaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.21

Port FC

0.92

Cerezo Osaka

1.21

Cerezo Osaka creates 32% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

1.17

1.25

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Port FC

1.00

Cerezo Osaka

1.17

allows per match

Port FC

1.25

Cerezo Osaka

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port FC+0.00on par

Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port FC ↓

Cerezo Osaka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Port FC or draw

57%

Port FC or Cerezo Osaka

71%

Draw or Cerezo Osaka

72%

Winning margin

Port FC wins by 2+

10%

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Port FC 1+ goals

60%

Port FC 2+ goals

23%

Port FC 3+ goals

7%

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals

70%

Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals

34%

Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Port FC (draw refunded)

40%

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Cerezo Osaka away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port FC attack 1.00 + Cerezo Osaka defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.17 + Port FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Port FC scores more

28%

level

29%

Cerezo Osaka scores more

43%

Cerezo Osaka at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff