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Cerezo Osaka vs Port FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Port FC
Port FC
6/30/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group J - 3Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cerezo Osaka52%
×Draw24%
Port FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerezo Osaka
1.66
Port FC
1.03

Cerezo Osaka creates 61% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.71
Port FC
1.20

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka
0.86
Port FC
1.60

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par
Port FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

Port FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw
76%
Cerezo Osaka or Port FC
76%
Draw or Port FC
48%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
28%
Port FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
81%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
49%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
23%
Port FC 1+ goals
64%
Port FC 2+ goals
28%
Port FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
69%
Port FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Port FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.71 + Port FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.66

Port FC attack 1.20 + Cerezo Osaka defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more
52%
level
24%
Port FC scores more
24%

Cerezo Osaka at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cerezo Osaka vs Port FC

Cerezo Osaka and Port FC drew 1-1 in AFC Champions League on June 30, 2021.

The match was played at Chang Arena in Buriram.