Port City 0–0 Home Stars: Result & Stats

Port City

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Home Stars

11/2/2025

Division One League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Port City53%

×Draw29%

Home Stars18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port CityExpected goals in this matchHome Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.64

Port City

1.33

Home Stars

0.64

Port City creates 108% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.73

creates per match

0.67

0.60

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Port City

1.73

Home Stars

0.67

allows per match

Port City

0.60

Home Stars

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port City+0.00on par

Home Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port City ↓

Home Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Port City or draw

82%

Port City or Home Stars

71%

Draw or Home Stars

47%

Winning margin

Port City wins by 2+

26%

Home Stars wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Port City 1+ goals

74%

Port City 2+ goals

38%

Port City 3+ goals

15%

Home Stars 1+ goals

47%

Home Stars 2+ goals

14%

Home Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Port City (draw refunded)

75%

Home Stars (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port City at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Home Stars away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port City attack 1.73 + Home Stars defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.33

Home Stars attack 0.67 + Port City defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Port City scores more

53%

level

29%

Home Stars scores more

18%

Port City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Port City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff