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Home Stars vs Port City — Division One League 2025

Home Stars
Home Stars
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Port City
Port City
2/22/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Home Stars28%
×Draw35%
Port City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Home Stars
0.73
Port City
0.90

Port City creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Home Stars
0.93
Port City
1.33

allows per match

Home Stars
0.47
Port City
0.53

finishing

Home Stars+0.00on par
Port City+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Home Stars ↓

Port City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–118%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Home Stars or draw
63%
Home Stars or Port City
65%
Draw or Port City
72%

Winning margin

Home Stars wins by 2+
8%
Port City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Home Stars 1+ goals
52%
Home Stars 2+ goals
17%
Home Stars 3+ goals
4%
Port City 1+ goals
59%
Port City 2+ goals
23%
Port City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Home Stars (draw refunded)
43%
Port City (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Home Stars at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Port City away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Home Stars attack 0.93 + Port City defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.73

Port City attack 1.33 + Home Stars defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Home Stars scores more
28%
level
35%
Port City scores more
37%

Port City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Port City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Home Stars 1–1 Port City

Home Stars and Port City drew 1-1 in Division One League on February 22, 2026.