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Port City vs Hakla SC — Division One League 2025

Port City
Port City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hakla SC
Hakla SC
3/22/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Port City54%
×Draw26%
Hakla SC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port City
1.56
Hakla SC
0.86

Port City creates 81% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Port City
1.73
Hakla SC
1.13

allows per match

Port City
0.60
Hakla SC
1.40

finishing

Port City+0.00on par
Hakla SC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port City ↓

Hakla SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Port City or draw
79%
Port City or Hakla SC
74%
Draw or Hakla SC
46%

Winning margin

Port City wins by 2+
28%
Hakla SC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Port City 1+ goals
79%
Port City 2+ goals
46%
Port City 3+ goals
21%
Hakla SC 1+ goals
58%
Hakla SC 2+ goals
21%
Hakla SC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Port City (draw refunded)
72%
Hakla SC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port City at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Hakla SC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port City attack 1.73 + Hakla SC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.56

Hakla SC attack 1.13 + Port City defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Port City scores more
54%
level
26%
Hakla SC scores more
21%

Port City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Port City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Port City 2–0 Hakla SC

Port City beat Hakla SC 2-0 in Division One League on March 22, 2026.