Hakla SC 1–2 Port City: Result & Stats

Hakla SC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Port City

11/23/2025

Division One League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hakla SC29%

×Draw30%

Port City41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hakla SCExpected goals in this matchPort City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.13

Hakla SC

0.90

Port City

1.13

Port City creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.27

creates per match

1.33

0.93

allows per match

0.53

creates per match

Hakla SC

1.27

Port City

1.33

allows per match

Hakla SC

0.93

Port City

0.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hakla SC+0.00on par

Port City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hakla SC ↓

Port City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Hakla SC or draw

59%

Hakla SC or Port City

70%

Draw or Port City

71%

Winning margin

Hakla SC wins by 2+

10%

Port City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hakla SC 1+ goals

59%

Hakla SC 2+ goals

23%

Hakla SC 3+ goals

6%

Port City 1+ goals

68%

Port City 2+ goals

31%

Port City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hakla SC (draw refunded)

41%

Port City (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hakla SC at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Port City away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hakla SC attack 1.27 + Port City defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.90

Port City attack 1.33 + Hakla SC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hakla SC scores more

29%

level

30%

Port City scores more

41%

Port City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Port City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff