Port City 3–0 Great Ambitions: Result & Stats

Port City

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Great Ambitions

3/1/2026

Division One League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Port City70%

×Draw19%

Great Ambitions10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port CityExpected goals in this matchGreat Ambitions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.60

Port City

2.00

Great Ambitions

0.60

Port City creates 233% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.73

creates per match

0.60

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Port City

1.73

Great Ambitions

0.60

allows per match

Port City

0.60

Great Ambitions

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port City+0.00on par

Great Ambitions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port City ↓

Great Ambitions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Port City or draw

90%

Port City or Great Ambitions

81%

Draw or Great Ambitions

30%

Winning margin

Port City wins by 2+

45%

Great Ambitions wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Port City 1+ goals

86%

Port City 2+ goals

59%

Port City 3+ goals

32%

Great Ambitions 1+ goals

45%

Great Ambitions 2+ goals

12%

Great Ambitions 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Port City (draw refunded)

87%

Great Ambitions (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port City at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Great Ambitions away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port City attack 1.73 + Great Ambitions defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.00

Great Ambitions attack 0.60 + Port City defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Port City scores more

70%

level

19%

Great Ambitions scores more

10%

Port City at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Port City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff