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Great Ambitions vs Port City — Division One League 2025

Great Ambitions
Great Ambitions
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Port City
Port City
11/10/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Great Ambitions10%
×Draw22%
Port City68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Great Ambitions
0.50
Port City
1.77

Port City creates 254% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Great Ambitions
0.47
Port City
1.33

allows per match

Great Ambitions
2.20
Port City
0.53

finishing

Great Ambitions+0.00on par
Port City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Great Ambitions ↓

Port City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–118%
0–216%
0–310%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Great Ambitions or draw
32%
Great Ambitions or Port City
78%
Draw or Port City
90%

Winning margin

Great Ambitions wins by 2+
2%
Port City wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Great Ambitions 1+ goals
39%
Great Ambitions 2+ goals
9%
Great Ambitions 3+ goals
1%
Port City 1+ goals
83%
Port City 2+ goals
53%
Port City 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Great Ambitions (draw refunded)
13%
Port City (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Great Ambitions at home — creates 0.47, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Port City away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Great Ambitions attack 0.47 + Port City defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.50

Port City attack 1.33 + Great Ambitions defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Great Ambitions scores more
10%
level
22%
Port City scores more
68%

Port City at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Port City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Great Ambitions 0 – 4 Port City

Port City beat Great Ambitions 4-0 in Division One League on November 10, 2025.