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Port Adelaide Pirates vs Para Hills Knights — South Australia State League 1 2021

Port Adelaide Pirates
Port Adelaide Pirates
FT
2 – 3
Para Hills Knights
Para Hills Knights
6/11/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 14Ngarrpadla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Port Adelaide Pirates25%
×Draw22%
Para Hills Knights52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Adelaide Pirates
1.29
Para Hills Knights
1.94

Para Hills Knights creates 50% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 38 away

creates per match

Port Adelaide Pirates
1.32
Para Hills Knights
1.53

allows per match

Port Adelaide Pirates
2.36
Para Hills Knights
1.26

finishing

Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par
Para Hills Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Adelaide Pirates ↓

Para Hills Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Port Adelaide Pirates or draw
48%
Port Adelaide Pirates or Para Hills Knights
78%
Draw or Para Hills Knights
75%

Winning margin

Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+
11%
Para Hills Knights wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals
72%
Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals
37%
Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals
14%
Para Hills Knights 1+ goals
86%
Para Hills Knights 2+ goals
58%
Para Hills Knights 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)
33%
Para Hills Knights (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Adelaide Pirates at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

Para Hills Knights away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + Para Hills Knights defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Para Hills Knights attack 1.53 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Port Adelaide Pirates scores more
25%
level
22%
Para Hills Knights scores more
52%

Para Hills Knights at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Para Hills Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Port Adelaide Pirates 2 – 3 Para Hills Knights

Para Hills Knights beat Port Adelaide Pirates 3-2 in South Australia State League 1 on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Ngarrpadla in Adelaide.