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Para Hills Knights vs Port Adelaide Pirates — South Australia State League 1 2021

Para Hills Knights
Para Hills Knights
FT
1 – 3
Port Adelaide Pirates
Port Adelaide Pirates
7/8/2023South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 19The Paddocks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Para Hills Knights55%
×Draw20%
Port Adelaide Pirates24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Para Hills Knights
2.22
Port Adelaide Pirates
1.42

Para Hills Knights creates 56% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 22 away

creates per match

Para Hills Knights
1.94
Port Adelaide Pirates
1.32

allows per match

Para Hills Knights
1.51
Port Adelaide Pirates
2.50

finishing

Para Hills Knights+0.00on par
Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Para Hills Knights ↓

Port Adelaide Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Para Hills Knights or draw
76%
Para Hills Knights or Port Adelaide Pirates
80%
Draw or Port Adelaide Pirates
45%

Winning margin

Para Hills Knights wins by 2+
34%
Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Para Hills Knights 1+ goals
89%
Para Hills Knights 2+ goals
65%
Para Hills Knights 3+ goals
38%
Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals
76%
Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals
41%
Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Para Hills Knights (draw refunded)
70%
Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Para Hills Knights at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

Port Adelaide Pirates away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Para Hills Knights attack 1.94 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.22

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + Para Hills Knights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Para Hills Knights scores more
55%
level
20%
Port Adelaide Pirates scores more
24%

Para Hills Knights at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Para Hills Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Para Hills Knights 1 – 3 Port Adelaide Pirates

Port Adelaide Pirates beat Para Hills Knights 3-1 in South Australia State League 1 on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at The Paddocks in Adelaide.