Port Adelaide Pirates 1–2 Fulham United

Port Adelaide Pirates

FT

1 – 2

Fulham United

3/11/2023

South Australia State League 1 · Round 4Ngarrpadla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Port Adelaide Pirates29%

×Draw23%

Fulham United48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port Adelaide PiratesExpected goals in this matchFulham United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.84

Port Adelaide Pirates

1.40

Fulham United

1.84

Fulham United creates 31% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 66 away

1.32

creates per match

1.32

2.36

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Port Adelaide Pirates

1.32

Fulham United

1.32

allows per match

Port Adelaide Pirates

2.36

Fulham United

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par

Fulham United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Adelaide Pirates ↓

Fulham United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Port Adelaide Pirates or draw

52%

Port Adelaide Pirates or Fulham United

77%

Draw or Fulham United

71%

Winning margin

Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+

13%

Fulham United wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals

75%

Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals

41%

Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals

17%

Fulham United 1+ goals

84%

Fulham United 2+ goals

55%

Fulham United 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)

38%

Fulham United (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Adelaide Pirates at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

Fulham United away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + Fulham United defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fulham United attack 1.32 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Port Adelaide Pirates scores more

29%

level

23%

Fulham United scores more

48%

Fulham United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fulham United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff