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Fulham United vs Port Adelaide Pirates — South Australia State League 1 2021

Fulham United
Fulham United
FT
1 – 0
Port Adelaide Pirates
Port Adelaide Pirates
6/3/2023South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 15West Beach Parks Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Fulham United55%
×Draw21%
Port Adelaide Pirates24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fulham United
2.08
Port Adelaide Pirates
1.31

Fulham United creates 59% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 22 away

creates per match

Fulham United
1.66
Port Adelaide Pirates
1.32

allows per match

Fulham United
1.31
Port Adelaide Pirates
2.50

finishing

Fulham United+0.00on par
Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham United ↓

Port Adelaide Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Fulham United or draw
76%
Fulham United or Port Adelaide Pirates
79%
Draw or Port Adelaide Pirates
45%

Winning margin

Fulham United wins by 2+
33%
Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fulham United 1+ goals
87%
Fulham United 2+ goals
61%
Fulham United 3+ goals
34%
Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals
73%
Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals
38%
Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fulham United (draw refunded)
70%
Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham United at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.31 · 65 matches

Port Adelaide Pirates away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham United attack 1.66 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + Fulham United defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fulham United scores more
55%
level
21%
Port Adelaide Pirates scores more
24%

Fulham United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fulham United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Fulham United 1–0 Port Adelaide Pirates

Fulham United beat Port Adelaide Pirates 1-0 in South Australia State League 1 on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at West Beach Parks Football Centre in Adelaide.