Port Adelaide Pirates 0–1 Eastern United

Port Adelaide Pirates

FT

0 – 1

Eastern United

5/13/2023

South Australia State League 1 · Round 12Ngarrpadla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Port Adelaide Pirates41%

×Draw22%

Eastern United37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port Adelaide PiratesExpected goals in this matchEastern United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.75

Port Adelaide Pirates

1.83

Eastern United

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 41 away

1.32

creates per match

1.15

2.36

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Port Adelaide Pirates

1.32

Eastern United

1.15

allows per match

Port Adelaide Pirates

2.36

Eastern United

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par

Eastern United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Adelaide Pirates ↓

Eastern United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Port Adelaide Pirates or draw

63%

Port Adelaide Pirates or Eastern United

78%

Draw or Eastern United

59%

Winning margin

Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+

21%

Eastern United wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals

84%

Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals

54%

Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals

28%

Eastern United 1+ goals

83%

Eastern United 2+ goals

52%

Eastern United 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)

52%

Eastern United (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Adelaide Pirates at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

Eastern United away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.34 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + Eastern United defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.83

Eastern United attack 1.15 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Port Adelaide Pirates scores more

41%

level

22%

Eastern United scores more

37%

Port Adelaide Pirates at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Port Adelaide Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff