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Eastern United vs Port Adelaide Pirates — South Australia State League 1 2021

Eastern United
Eastern United
FT
2 – 0
Port Adelaide Pirates
Port Adelaide Pirates
5/15/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 10State Centre for Football Artificial Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Eastern United46%
×Draw22%
Port Adelaide Pirates32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eastern United
1.91
Port Adelaide Pirates
1.56

Eastern United creates 22% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 22 away

creates per match

Eastern United
1.31
Port Adelaide Pirates
1.32

allows per match

Eastern United
1.81
Port Adelaide Pirates
2.50

finishing

Eastern United+0.00on par
Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern United ↓

Port Adelaide Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Eastern United or draw
68%
Eastern United or Port Adelaide Pirates
78%
Draw or Port Adelaide Pirates
54%

Winning margin

Eastern United wins by 2+
25%
Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Eastern United 1+ goals
85%
Eastern United 2+ goals
57%
Eastern United 3+ goals
30%
Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals
79%
Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals
46%
Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Eastern United (draw refunded)
59%
Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern United at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

Port Adelaide Pirates away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern United attack 1.31 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.91

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + Eastern United defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Eastern United scores more
46%
level
22%
Port Adelaide Pirates scores more
32%

Eastern United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Eastern United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eastern United 2 – 0 Port Adelaide Pirates

Eastern United beat Port Adelaide Pirates 2-0 in South Australia State League 1 on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at State Centre for Football Artificial Pitch 1 in Adelaide.