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Port Adelaide Pirates vs Adelaide Victory — South Australia State League 1 2021

Port Adelaide Pirates
Port Adelaide Pirates
FT
0 – 0
Adelaide Victory
Adelaide Victory
4/9/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 7Taperoo Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Port Adelaide Pirates33%
×Draw23%
Adelaide Victory44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Adelaide Pirates
1.54
Adelaide Victory
1.79

Adelaide Victory creates 16% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 52 away

creates per match

Port Adelaide Pirates
1.32
Adelaide Victory
1.23

allows per match

Port Adelaide Pirates
2.36
Adelaide Victory
1.77

finishing

Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par
Adelaide Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Adelaide Pirates ↓

Adelaide Victory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Port Adelaide Pirates or draw
56%
Port Adelaide Pirates or Adelaide Victory
77%
Draw or Adelaide Victory
67%

Winning margin

Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+
16%
Adelaide Victory wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals
79%
Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals
45%
Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals
20%
Adelaide Victory 1+ goals
83%
Adelaide Victory 2+ goals
53%
Adelaide Victory 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)
43%
Adelaide Victory (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Adelaide Pirates at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

Adelaide Victory away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + Adelaide Victory defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.54

Adelaide Victory attack 1.23 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Port Adelaide Pirates scores more
33%
level
23%
Adelaide Victory scores more
44%

Adelaide Victory at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Adelaide Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Port Adelaide Pirates vs Adelaide Victory

Port Adelaide Pirates and Adelaide Victory drew 0-0 in South Australia State League 1 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Taperoo Reserve in Adelaide.