Adelaide Victory 2–2 Port Adelaide Pirates

Adelaide Victory

FT

2 – 2

Port Adelaide Pirates

8/12/2023

South Australia State League 1 · Round 22Rushworth Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Adelaide Victory53%

×Draw22%

Port Adelaide Pirates25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide VictoryExpected goals in this matchPort Adelaide Pirates

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.29

Adelaide Victory

1.98

Port Adelaide Pirates

1.29

Adelaide Victory creates 53% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 22 away

1.47

creates per match

1.32

1.25

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Adelaide Victory

1.47

Port Adelaide Pirates

1.32

allows per match

Adelaide Victory

1.25

Port Adelaide Pirates

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide Victory+0.00on par

Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Victory ↓

Port Adelaide Pirates →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Adelaide Victory or draw

75%

Adelaide Victory or Port Adelaide Pirates

78%

Draw or Port Adelaide Pirates

47%

Winning margin

Adelaide Victory wins by 2+

31%

Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Adelaide Victory 1+ goals

86%

Adelaide Victory 2+ goals

59%

Adelaide Victory 3+ goals

31%

Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals

72%

Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals

37%

Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Victory (draw refunded)

68%

Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Victory at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

Port Adelaide Pirates away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Victory attack 1.47 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.98

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + Adelaide Victory defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Adelaide Victory scores more

53%

level

22%

Port Adelaide Pirates scores more

25%

Adelaide Victory at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Adelaide Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff